The NFL legal handle in 2025 reached approximately $35 billion across US regulated mobile sportsbooks. Seven national operators control more than 92 percent of the mobile NFL handle. These companies include DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, Fanatics, BetRivers, and ESPN BET. Player props represent the biggest growth segment in the current wagering market. DraftKings lists more than 400 distinct player-prop markets for a typical Sunday afternoon game.
The handle grew.
Bettors use the difference between the percentage of bets and the percentage of money to identify sharp action. A difference exceeding 15 percent between these two figures often signals professional interest. In the 2025-26 season, the public went 1-3 in Week 1 games where more than 75 percent of the money sat on one side. The public finished that season with a 145-140 record against the spread. Public betting volume often favors big brands like the Lions, Bills, Eagles, Chiefs, and Cowboys. However, the most profitable teams for bettors in 2025-26 were the Patriots and Seahawks.
The money moves.
Specific player props provide clear paths to value for those who study usage and matchup data. Bijan Robinson handles approximately 65 percent of team rushes in Atlanta and ranked fifth in receiving yards last season. His rushing yards line sits at 68.5. James Cook owns roughly two-thirds of the Bills’ rushing volume and scored 16 rushing touchdowns last season. His rushing yards line sits at 71.5.
| Player | Prop Type | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | Rushing Yards | 68.5 | -110 |
| James Cook | Rushing Yards | 71.5 | -114 |
| Matthew Stafford | Passing Yards | 240.5 | -114 |
| Dak Prescott | Passing TDs | 1.5 | -144 |
| George Pickens | Receptions | 4.5 | -172 |
| Alvin Kamara | Receptions | 5.5 | -115 |
| Jaxson Dart | Passing TDs | 0.5 | -212 |
| James Conner | Rushing Yards | 68.5 | -110 |
| Brenton Strange | Anytime TD | N/A | +400 |
| Njoku | Receiving Yards | 50+ | -114 |
The volume rises.
Tight end production offers another way to find edges in the opening week. Brenton Strange faces a Panthers defense that surrendered 11 receiving touchdowns to tight ends in 2024. Head coach Liam Coen previously favored tight ends like Cade Otton in the red zone. Njoku faces a Bengals defense that allowed the third-most receiving yards to tight ends in 2024. Joe Flacco averaged 78 receiving yards per game in five starts for the Browns during the 2023 regular season. Njoku exceeded his yardage totals in five of 11 games last season.
The data supports various outcomes for the opening slate. Bijan Robinson faces a Buccaneers defense that surrendered the fifth-most receiving yards to backs last season. He averaged 25.4 receiving yards per game last year. James Cook faces a Carolina defense that allowed 130 rushing yards per game to running backs. He topped 60 yards in five of his last six appearances. Matthew Stafford faces a Texans defense that allowed 6.2 yards per pass attempt last season. He averaged 235.1 passing yards per game last season. Dak Prescott faces a Denver defense that allowed passing completions in the intermediate zone. He averaged 3.3 passing touchdowns in his last three weeks. George Pickens faces a Dallas defense that allows completions to receivers. He averaged 4.2 receptions per game last season. Alvin Kamara averages nearly seven targets per game. He faces a Tampa Bay defense that leads the league in receptions allowed to running backs. Jaxson Dart faces a Philadelphia defense that allows completions near the goal line. He averaged 2.0 passing touchdowns in his last three starts. James Conner faces a New Orleans defense that allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to backs in 2024. He exceeded his rushing line in eight of 16 games last season.
You already know how to watch for shifts in the spread before kickoff.
The 2025-26 season saw favorites win 65.9 percent of their games outright, but these same teams only covered the spread 47.8 percent of the time during that entire campaign. The numbers 3 and 7 account for 15 percent and 9 percent of all NFL final-margin frequencies. Will the public continue to favor heavy favorites during the opening week? I recommend taking the over on Bijan Robinson’s rushing yards.